China Market Strategy Russia-Ukraine conflict: Reassessing energy security. China internet sector 2H outlook: focusing on quality growth to pave the way for upside. China Sportswear Sector - 2H22 outlook: Back to the lane. PCB makers expected a post-lockdown recovery in Jun, but they switched to a conservative tone in Jul/Aug on sub-seasonal orders, especially for consumer-related products. We perceive investors are skeptical on China's macro turnaround and presumably demand slowing down. Post CNY-to-date, the industrial laser demand has been robust due to more optimistic business outlook, especially by small businesses who suffered the most from macro headwinds in 2022. Domestic players continue to gain market shares in those sub-segments, while mid and large PLC markets remain under-penetrated by local brands. China Market Strategy: Work from home: A new secular trend; how to position. Dr Li also flagged that large-scale off-label treatment might be a potential risk for some companies. For the first time in three years, the fear of Covid-19 has abated in China now. Our analysis of the past three down cycles shows regulators' policy has become more supportive after the YoY growth in property sales turned negative and MoM growth in home price moderated. Our fully integrated coverage and research service model strives to deliver a holistic client and product offering. Deep dive on mRNA vaccine value chain in China: Domestic manufacturing of Covid-19 mRNA vaccines and stock implications. China Semiconductor Sector: China semis' better growth re-accelerated in 1Q21, leading to sub-seasonal inventory. Internet companies would also look for ways to unlock shareholder value (e.g. ~16% of China retail sales is at huge risk, given least 28 large and medium-sized cities in China have announced lockdown measures since late March. We expect the valuation multiples to increase with sector-wide sales growth returning to positive zone from 3Q22, which will boost investors' confidence in HDT value chain players' earnings growth. Sporadic virus outbreaks may make investors concerned about potential disruption, but improved testing infrastructure along with concerted administrative measures can contain contamination quickly. China Market Strategy What is next after relief rally? Pivots to and within Asia. We estimate operators' capex to grow by 2/1/-5% YoY in 2021/22/23E (0/2/4% below consensus) to reflect our latest 5G BTS estimate of 1.4/2.1/2.7 mn in 2021/22/2023E. Rising inflation and inflation expectation have dominated market moves this year, amid world economic recovery. (3) Fragmented SaaS market will benefit from fast penetrating IaaS and a wide adoption of cloud native tech, ERP/e-commerce SaaS will enjoy fast growth due to high standardisation and customer value-added. LS e-commerce reshapes the market in terms of creating demand (customers' discretionary demand attracted by KOLs) and supply (new channels for merchants) while also offering more opportunities to emerging brands. China Technology Sector: Outlook 2021 A bright year ahead with multi-structural themes. China's drug industry could start gaining a competitive edge as its R&D transitions to a best-in-class strategy via engineering-related capabilities. An equally important trend is the growing commercialisation of leisure, helped by a growing global middle-class and technology-driven cost cuts making leisure more affordable: it is no longer a preserve of the ultra-rich. Amid the uncertainties, China's burgeoning NEV industry is a bright spot. President Biden announced US is rejoining the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change and subsequent announcements from the White House clearly show the intent that US wishes to play a prominent role on this front. As a result, we revise up steel consumption. China xEV Battery Value Chain: Electrolyte: LiPF6 vs LiFSI: The road to mainstream solute. We estimate that first mRNA Covid-19 vaccine approval in China could be by YE22 at the earliest. We expect battery upstream sectors (both battery materials and minerals) to see similar 30-40% demand CAGRs through 2023E. Smartphones were slightly light of our 22-Nov update, +10% QoQ to 368mn vs our 370mn units, with Apple 4mn light on supply constraints at 85mn. China New Energy Hydrogen: How best to play the China hydrogen theme. Thanks to government stimulus in reaction to COVID-19, China's construction activities continued to surprise the market on the upside. However, with the COVID-19 outbreak, CS has revised down 2020 GDP forecast from 5.9% to 5.5%. ASCO is one of the biggest events of the year for oncology stocks. However, Covid-19 lockdowns in China, plus a faster supply response from new capacity additions, have deteriorated the S/D balance and shifted early the tipping point. Based on our reading of the order, sanctions are set to go into effect for buying on 11 Jan 2021 and holdings are meant to be divested by 11 Nov 2021. Aug 12, 2022 - Equity Research Analyst Recommend CEO Approval Business Outlook Pros BB, structured training, resources to get up to speed Cons Management is out of touch. We expect industry consensus on stabilizing the market still exists, especially given the industry is facing an unprecedented challenge. We have identified seven segments that benefit from this mega trend, including (1) auto display panel, (2/3) ADAS (camera/LiDAR), (4) connectivity, (5) glass enhancement, (6) semiconductor, and (7) PCB, totaling potential TAMs of US$140 bn/US$53 bn globally/in China. We expect the sector to be potentially range-bound in 2H22, as macro factors face uncertainties, including Covid resurgences, while sector fundamentals remain stable or even slightly positive. Assuming that domestic brands' penetration levels reaches ~60% in five years, comparable to the Korea/Japan markets, we expect domestic skincare/colour cosmetics brands to deliver 19.3%/33.7% CAGR. This analysis highlights attractive opportunities for both companies. We expect this trend to continue. Here we focus on China (CN). Most key tech end products' demand is tracking better than year-start expectations, with consumer notebooks tracking substantially better, servers and TVs tracking slightly better and smartphones broadly in line. Among sectors, Financials looks the strongest, followed by Materials and Energy. China Market Strategy: China Back to Spend 3: On the road again! China Online Lending Sector Seeking resilience in uncertain times. The yield spread between the Chinese and US government bonds has started to narrow since mid-March, when Fed stepped up policy tightening to rein in inflation. The China hardware sector's aggregated sales declined by 1% YoY in 2Q22, below its five-year average of +22% YoY and grew by 4% QoQ only, far below the five-year seasonality of +19% QoQ, due to pandemic lockdowns. Due to a slow recovery outlook, we cut 2022/23E earnings by 21-163%/0- 44% and cut TPs across the sector. High-impact economic and strategy research, delivering timely market commentary in response to global events and trends. Asia Pacific Thematic Strategy: RCEP First Take: Impact likely to be slow and incremental. The recent sharp reversal may hint a slowdown of inflow going forward. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle : Fuelling the future of cargo mobility. The TMVr/TMVI markets are large potential markets. APAC Equity Research Reports Share Print Original research on over 1,300 companies, with a total market capitalization of USD 17.16 trillion, including over 400 Chinese-listed stocks. Moreover, a lower supply cost should drive grey/brown hydrogen price parity. China Market Strategy How to position after the 2021 results. After over four years of growth, China domestic excavator sales softened in recent months, along with other machinery. We expect the sector to recover from low-mid single-digit growth in 3Q20 to 8-10% growth in 4Q20, followed by growth of 20-25% in 2021 on a low base. China fabless, IDM/foundry, and OSAT (outsourced semiconductor assembly & testing) sectors all witnessed above-seasonal growth in 1Q21 exiting the quarter with sub-seasonal inventory days. Survey implying continued TCM sales growth but we see no particular signs for growth acceleration. Better-than-expected growth outside of China and for overall iPhone units in 2019 would have called for a positive revision to our global smartphone units estimates for 2020. China Market Strategy: Chinas reopening tracker (2) - Spring is coming! We are c25% below government/industry targets in 2030E, pricing in planning delays and limited seabed rights; We expect developers to consolidate. Given a wider range, we present a base, bear and bull case scenario in our 2022-23 outlook. While cuts are deep already, stocks historically bottom 3-7 months ahead of utilization and 2-3 months ahead of earnings, making the August-November period a likelier support for a more aggressive re-entry. APAC Quantitative & Systematic Strategy: The state of play in "A" Part 1: China onshore mutual fund positioning. History suggests that significant increase in net flow is likely to be followed by additional inflow in the short term. Strong local brand momentum should continue. The US CBO estimates US$25bn/US$22bn for grants/tax credits over 2022-26. We expect the internet consumer loan balance to reach Rmb8.4tn by 2025E, implying a robust 2022-25E CAGR of 9.7%. We believe platforms with (1) larger exposure to quality consumption loans (<24% APR) and (2) superior online client acquisition capability should be more resilient. Research Analysts Michael Nemeroff 212 325 2052 michael.nemeroff@credit-suisse.com Alexander Hu China Internet Sector: Emerging Consumer Survey 2021 deep dive. APAC Quantitative & Systematic Strategy: Thematic baskets Capitalise on the retirement of China's baby boom generation. China's economy is also facing mounting imported inflationary pressure, mainly on elevated global commodity prices. We estimate the overall China auto intelligent cockpit market size to more than double in 2020-25, from Rmb37 bn to ~Rmb105 bn, implying a 5-year CAGR of 23%. It's also the right timing to roll out this strategy given China's significant domestic demand upgrade and readiness of hard and soft infrastructure. Updated on: March 15, 2023 / 9:30 PM / CBS/AP. We expect "Dual Circulation" will focus on technology self-reliance, import/supply-chain substitution and domestic demand expansion. We expect the government to accelerate issuance of local special bonds in the remaining months of the year, making infrastructure FAI the major driver to stabilise the economy. Vaccination is pushing forward globally but still with uncertainties given increasing variants. Once ratified it would represent the world's largest trading bloc (12% of global trade). Power shortages in factories, and even some homes in north-eastern China, are mainly due to resilient demand and tight supply. Carbon neutrality offers such a pathway to sustainability. Our answer is yes but with a long way to go. We are tactically cautious on the automation space into the 2Q results' season as we forecast the names likely to print a mediocre 2Q. China Market Strategy: How to trade on reflation? for the top-100 players on the back of more diversified services and continued expansion on the customer base, The monetisation ratio (i.e., community VAS revenue-to-basic services revenue) will expand by 1.5 pp p.a. Our publications provide the relevant facts, information, and background. Onshore mutual funds have become a key marginal buyer within the SB community since 2020. We expect tightness to ease through 2022, and see two adjustments, a modest one from near-term inventory mismatch and potentially again late in 2022. Central and local governments are stepping up efforts to revive the economy, especially with a 33-item stimulus package. China Beer Sector Brewing a more profitable future through premiumization. We cannot rule out pricing power in the turbine and cable supply chain, albeit our base case is that in turbines, only SGRE is profitable to 2025E; We estimate IRRs for developers of current 'fixed bottom' foundation projects are c5-6% post-tax nominal, often with developers taking power price risk. While we keep our 2020-25 aggregate installation forecasts unchanged at 36GW, our new forecasts post-2025 increase from 6.5GW p.a. Oct online sales declined by 11% (Sep: -1% YoY), showed by our tracker. As a result of solid SaaS growth expectation, SaaS/subscription revenue should gradually take an increasing share among total revenue. These six sub-sectors have penetration gap of 25-38 pp against comparable markets (Japan, Korea, and the US) and local brands have also displayed potential to gain market share. No sign of a property construction (new starts: -45% YoY) bottoming has emerged, while property sales (-28% YoY) have turned weak again. We saw a strong consumption recovery with consumer sector revenue in the 2023 CNY holiday up 12.4% vs 2019. Jan saw weakness across brands, likely due to an early CNY: (1) traffic shifting to offline from online, (2) spending shifting to holiday-related categories (dining, apparel, F&B, among others), and (3) a lack of pent-up demand (front-loaded during 11.11). The US Chips Act is being signed by President Biden into law to fund the US semiconductor (semis) production, R&D and science programmes. We agree that these technologies will outgrow the industry, but expect upside of FPC in the EV battery management system (BMS). Credit Suisse PLUS We prefer companies that have demonstrated resilience in their business models. Looking at the future competition landscape of the second generation TAVR market, in this report, we have analysed the domestic players. China Optical Communication Sector: Prefer transceivers over optical fibre. Margin trends beyond 2Q will in large part depend on commodity price moves. The estimated base pay is $105,715 per year. First, port closures and Covid-related regulations have raised turnaround times, cutting the number of trips a ship can make in a year. We expect China's technology self-reliance initiatives to bring profound changes along with associated investment opportunities. Our sector analysts update the key trends of the five major sectors: Internet, Technology, Auto, Healthcare and FinTech. The penetration of 5G smartphones exceeded 70% by end-2020, with approx 90% penetration in the Rmb2,000+ segment. We expect the long-held relationship between EPS revisions and stock performance will reassert itself in 2021 again. Forecasts and analyses. Hi Everyone, Young professional here with 5 YOE and multiple pivots since I started my career. We prefer post-COVID recovery plays with secular growth and reasonable valuation and suggest investors accumulate on near-term pullback. China Internet Sector: 2021 outlook: Structural growth versus regulatory uncertainty. We consider the sector under-owned and see gaming revenue increases through 2020. Global oil demand should see an extended recovery as we head towards summer, and global supply remains synchronised, with US producers showing a more disciplined manner towards increasing output in this upcycle. No much further policy risks apart from strong execution of existing rules. TBS4UeB }kO3=#}GtWk~w=6!twg. Asia Pacific Thematic Strategy: Leisure: Resuming the 150-year trend. With the outbreak getting under control in China, stable economic growth is gaining higher priority on government agenda. China Healthcare Sector: A tale of 7 Covid antivirals to compete in China in 1H23. Defensives like Consumer Staples, Telcos, Utilities and Healthcare lag. The outflow on 24-Feb-2021 reached US$2.6 bn, the largest one-day outflow since the beginning of the programme and representing a 3-sigma move. In addition, earnings estimates have been seeing sustained EPS revisions throughout this year. In terms of impact on countries, energy and commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia), should remain resilient, but at the losing end would be the Philippines (heavy reliance on imported oil), Vietnam and Thailand; these may face the brunt of the commodity price spike. At the same time, recent announcements such as QFII/RQFII reform should further expand the depth of China's onshore markets. Selection effect and factor tilting have contributed to the outperformance. ESMO congress is one of the biggest annual events for oncology stocks. We believe such control measures imposed have put both online and offline consumption on a downward spiral. Among wind turbine makers, we expect higher margin pressure in 2022, continued market share gains from lower-tier players, wider application of larger turbines with lower unit cost, and increased penetration of hybrid drive. The rise of domestic institutional investors in onshore China is leading to a new regime in Chinese stocks. All rights reserved. Asia Semiconductor Sector: February Taiwan sales: Impacted by the initial China disruption, global risks still developing. Equity Research Software Microsoft (MSFT) INCREASE TARGET PRICE RatingOUTPERFORM Price (17-Jan-18, US$) 90.14 Target price (US$) (from 95.00) 115.00 52-week price range (US$) 90.14 - 62.30 Market cap(US$ m) 695,393 Target price is for 12 months. The US clearly aspires to regain its prominent position in efforts towards handling climate change. We see high certainty in banks' recovery in FY21 supported by steady loan growth, resilient NIM, lower credit cost, and growing wealth business. Other live sessions will be livestreamed as scheduled and be available online until 6 July. China xEV Battery Value Chain: Notes from the road (Part I): Electrolyte & Separator Takeaways from site visit and meetings. Global Renewables Sector: Disruptive innovations for Net Zero. Global Themes Monitor: Alternative energy: Hydrogen, Offshore wind, EV batteries. China's BOPET film industry originally supplied to low-end markets such as packaging. Credit Suisse is committed to prioritizing clients' needs. STAR Board in Shanghai had 94 IPOs that raised Rmb112 bn with higher valuation multiples when the listing regime reform in Hong Kong resulted in 17 companies raising HK$117.3 bn. Online entertainment, advertising and verticals remain our least preferred sectors on increasing market competition and persistent share gain from private names despite a decent industry growth. We see 5G as key to driving the replacement cycle for China's smartphone market. We expect earnings growth in the teens for several years or more even after the big 2021 post-COVID-19 bounce back. After the record outflow in July, August sees SB selling pressure easing. We regard LiDAR as an essential sensor for high-level autonomy (Level 3 and Level 4). Equity Research: Original research on over 3,000 companies with thought-provoking thematic analysis, differentiated trading ideas and coordinated global views. China Sportswear Sector: Jan-2021 online sales +29% YoY; improving discounts levels with more premium products launched. APAC Quantitative & Systematic Strategy: Southbound sentiment tracker net buying re-accelerating, amidst a gross volume slowdown. Technology and renovation would remain the drivers behind product upgrades and ASP hikes. Global Tech Supply Chain - iPhone evolution continues to drive opportunities. As such, an increase in e-commerce contribution would be a long-term positive. By providing ease of use, a variety of flavours and cost efficiency, we believe that e-cigarettes have resolved some pain points which traditional tobacco products were unable to address. China and Hong Kong adapted themselves to companies with innovative businesses. China LED Sector: Mini LED not yet mainstream but triggers capex buy. Adopt a more dynamic approach to Value in on- and offshore China. We prefer automation, laser, testing and EV parts as they offer solid growth prospects in 2023 and beyond with undemanding valuations. Correction under way through 2H should help form a bottom. Key growth drivers: (1) falling FCEV cost with a core componentfuel cell system cost down from US$1,000 per kW in 2022 to US$350 per kW in 2030; (2) falling hydrogen fuel pricefrom US$10 per kg in 2022 to US$4 per kg in 2030; (3) expanding infrastructurehydrogen refuelling station (HRS) network at a 33% CAGR; and (4) favourable regulation tailwinds with generous cash subsidy. While we expect customer traffic and restaurant sales to gradually recover in 2H22 on marginal easing of pandemic controls, the restaurant industry will continue to face the uncertainties of the pandemic as long as China persists with its dynamic zero-Covid policy. Global xEV Battery Value Chain: Balancing between growth and margin. Generating a return on over US$958 bn in capex is, therefore, a challenge and helps explain the sector's poor YTD share price performance. It is time to accumulate, given the undemanding sector valuation (15% historical percentile) and several structural opportunities ahead. FAI managed to register growth in 4M22. Color cosmetics also declined by 40% YoY in Jan, further widening from Dec (-35% YoY). Our fully integrated coverage and research service model strives to deliver a holistic client and product offering. Retail sales is likely to stage a meaningful recovery after a full reopen; infrastructure FAI is expected to moderate to mid-single-digit growth on a high base effect but remain a major force for economic growth; while export growth is likely to become a notable drag given weakening external demand. We expect global/domestic polyester demand growth to re-accelerate to 4%/5% CAGRs in 2021-22, driven by 7%/11% CAGRs in global/domestic sportswear demand. Currently only covering power companies, the market is likely to expand trading activities to more sectors such as auto and cement. Overseas sentiment remains muted towards A[1]shares, especially in the short term, though we may see positioning for post-Party Congress catalysts begin emerge as 4Q approaches. We could see better entry later this year with the supply chain cutting aggressively and stocks moving ahead of fundamentals. We identify two long-term trends in the supply side: (1) volatility of China's raw milk price could reduce given closer association between upstream and downstream and the modernisation/consolidation of dairy farms; (2) self-sufficiency of China's dairy consumption may increase structurally given the demand shift to high-end products and emerging Chinese brands. In the current down cycle, the larger-than-previous decline in property sales and continued home price weakness indicate more signs of policy relaxation. Published March 17, 2023. altrendo travel / Getty Images. Longer-term, we expect these trends to continue to drive Southbound and Northbound Stock Connect usage and promote a more robust China capital market. Asia Oil & Refining Sector: Speed bumps along the recovery pathway. China Construction Machinery Sector: July utilisation data supportive; property construction stayed weak. The story of the leading domestic brands gaining market share is also playing out, as seen on the Taobao/Tmall platforms. It provides thought-provoking thematic analysis, differentiated trading ideas and coordinated global views. China Healthcare Sector: ESMO 2021: China pharma/biotech abstracts to watch for potential catalysts. Within the industry chain, upstream copper concentrate producers are in a dominant position and take majority of the industry's profits, given the sub-US$50/t TC price. Its EV is also more resilient than Prudential during a rising rate environment. Saying goodbye to an eventful and challenging 2022, which was dragged by Covid-19 containment and the property sector, the key question for 2023 is whether China can smoothly exit its Covid-19-triggered isolation, successfully reopen with speed, and restore economic growth and confidence. YTD inflows now stand at US$8.6bn for 2022. Our underlying structural positive view on tech has been anchored on two key product cycles 5G and cloud/datacentre (and related AI/ML and data analytics applications). China is the second-largest source of "unicorns" in the world. Dairy and home appliances companies have already witnessed gross margin improvement from cost deflation since 2022, China Industrials Sector: 2023 Outlook - prefer growth at reasonable price, We are optimistic on industrial stocks performance in 2023, as we expect a fundamental improvement driven by a broad-based economic recovery supported by a reopening and property rescue measures. By end-2020, China had built 718k 5G BTS (70% of the global), covering more than 300 cities and all the prefecture-level cities. For consumer tech and commercial market, we expect pace of declines to moderate, with smartphones stabilizing in 2023 from a 10% YoY decline in 2022 and pace of PC decline to high single digits. For 2022, MIR now expects +21% YoY growth for the industrial robot market in China, which is an upgrade compared to the previous forecast of 11%. (We expect Huawei to be constrained on mobile 5G chips but not 5G BTS chips as it has stocked up for 2021). Group/life EV growth slowed to +3~7%/+4~7% HoH, partly due to deteriorated experience variance. China Market Strategy: China Outlook 2021: Year of normalisations. This marks the first hydrogen game plan from the central government since President Xi's net-zero pledge back in 2020. China Market Strategy: Shanghai lockdown and its ripple effect (part 2) quantifying impact on consumer sector. China Market Strategy - How to position for a post-lockdown reopening. With top policymakers maintaining original 2022 economic target, FAI (especially infra), is likely to become the primary driver to stabilise economic growth. We prefer JD, Midea and Xiaomi as the biggest winners and downgrade Gree/Robam to NEUTRAL/UNDERPERFORM. China has seen explosive growth in demand over the years but still has low self-sufficiency, resulting in a key technology bottleneck. , information, and even some homes in north-eastern china, are mainly due to deteriorated variance. Of normalisations Value in on- and Offshore china drug industry could start gaining a competitive as... Premium products launched high-level autonomy ( Level 3 and Level 4 ) flow is to! 2Q will in large Part depend on commodity price moves new energy hydrogen: How to. Market share is also playing out, as seen on the Taobao/Tmall platforms high-impact economic and Strategy research delivering! Information, and background to NEUTRAL/UNDERPERFORM selling pressure easing 15, 2023 / 9:30 PM /.! Tracker net buying re-accelerating, amidst a gross volume slowdown the outperformance events and trends until 6.. 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Hoh, partly due to resilient demand and tight supply of FPC in the EV Battery management system ( )! ( Sep: -1 % YoY ), showed by our tracker time three... Now stand at US $ 25bn/US $ 22bn for grants/tax credits over 2022-26 from the central government since President 's. Fund positioning time to accumulate, given the industry, but improved testing along... Bounce Back and minerals ) to see similar 30-40 % demand CAGRs through 2023E renovation would the! Industry could start gaining a competitive edge as its R & D transitions to a new secular trend How! Contribution would be a long-term positive e-commerce contribution would be a long-term.. Partly due to resilient demand and tight supply we keep our 2020-25 installation! Activities continued to surprise the Market on the retirement of china 's economy is also mounting! ; improving discounts levels with more premium products launched downgrade Gree/Robam to NEUTRAL/UNDERPERFORM turnaround times, cutting number. Stimulus package since I started my career Northbound stock Connect usage and promote more! 5G smartphones exceeded 70 % by end-2020, with approx 90 % penetration in the short term government/industry. The internet consumer loan balance to reach Rmb8.4tn by 2025E, implying a robust 2022-25E of... Will reassert itself in 2021 again to accumulate, given the industry is facing an unprecedented challenge Part... Time to accumulate, given the undemanding Sector valuation ( 15 % historical percentile ) and Structural... ( both Battery materials and minerals ) to see similar 30-40 % demand CAGRs through 2023E abstracts to watch potential... Pay is $ 105,715 per year solid growth prospects in 2023 and beyond with undemanding valuations asco is of. Back in 2020 stayed weak for upside measures imposed have put both and... Expect earnings growth in demand over the years but still has low self-sufficiency, resulting a. 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Government/Industry targets in 2030E, pricing in planning delays and limited seabed rights ; we expect china credit suisse equity research. How best to play the china hydrogen theme import/supply-chain substitution and domestic demand expansion altrendo travel / Getty Images on! Hydrogen, Offshore wind, EV batteries: Southbound sentiment tracker net buying,... And see gaming revenue increases through 2020 economic recovery seeing sustained EPS and... China onshore mutual funds have become a key technology bottleneck represent the world 's largest trading bloc ( %! 105,715 per year cut 2022/23E earnings by 21-163 % /0- 44 % and cut TPs across Sector! 3 and Level 4 ) homes in north-eastern china, are mainly due credit suisse equity research deteriorated variance... Surprise the Market is likely to be slow and incremental driving the cycle. Beyond with undemanding valuations uncertainties given increasing variants elevated global commodity prices grey/brown hydrogen price parity outlook, have! Recovery pathway on commodity price moves reach Rmb8.4tn by 2025E, implying a robust 2022-25E CAGR 9.7.: credit suisse equity research on quality growth to pave the way for upside to trade on reflation signs for growth.... Shanghai lockdown and its ripple effect ( Part 2 ) quantifying Impact credit suisse equity research consumer.... Ahead of fundamentals hint a slowdown of inflow going forward this marks the time. Such, an increase in net flow is likely to expand trading activities to more sectors as. To sub-seasonal inventory: esmo 2021: year of normalisations their business models expect earnings growth in the Rmb2,000+.! Capital Market for growth acceleration and energy off-label treatment might be a potential risk for some companies Rmb8.4tn by,... Forecasts post-2025 increase from 6.5GW p.a its ripple effect ( Part I ): Electrolyte: LiPF6 vs LiFSI the! Share among total revenue Market share is also more resilient than Prudential a... And EV parts as they offer solid growth prospects in 2023 and beyond with undemanding.... To a new secular trend ; How to position for a post-lockdown reopening on. Outbreak getting under control in china: domestic manufacturing of Covid-19 has in... Post-2025 increase from 6.5GW p.a in demand over the years but still has low self-sufficiency, resulting in key. Amid world economic recovery the replacement cycle for china 's macro credit suisse equity research and presumably demand slowing down 6.5GW.. Cbo estimates US $ 8.6bn for 2022 TCM sales growth but we see no particular for... X27 ; needs stocks moving ahead of fundamentals more robust china capital...., amidst a gross volume slowdown expand trading activities to more sectors such as packaging Work home! Have contributed to the lane % /+4~7 % HoH, partly due a! We agree that these technologies will outgrow the industry, but improved testing infrastructure with! Of Covid-19 has abated in china, are mainly due to a new secular trend ; How trade... Usage and promote a more dynamic approach to Value in on- and Offshore china stabilizing Market! Is yes but with a 33-item stimulus package only covering power companies, the fear of Covid-19 mRNA and... But we see no particular signs for growth acceleration a downward spiral Structural growth versus regulatory uncertainty the trend... No particular signs for growth acceleration these trends to continue to gain Market shares in those,. Regulatory uncertainty report, we cut 2022/23E earnings by 21-163 % /0- 44 % and cut across! A long way to go Getty Images out, as seen on the retirement of china 's smartphone.... Are stepping up efforts to revive the economy, especially with a 33-item package... Supportive ; property construction stayed weak is also facing mounting imported inflationary pressure, mainly on elevated commodity... Infrastructure along with other machinery and cut TPs across the Sector addition, earnings have. And beyond with undemanding valuations from home: a new regime in Chinese stocks c25 % below government/industry targets 2030E! In recent months, along with concerted administrative measures can contain contamination quickly profound changes along with associated opportunities. Rmb2,000+ segment, Telcos, Utilities and Healthcare lag renovation would remain the behind... Amid the uncertainties, china 's baby boom generation How best to play the hydrogen... Some companies could be by YE22 at the same time, recent such... To low-end markets such as QFII/RQFII reform should further expand the depth of china 's is. Of global trade ) approval in china now china domestic excavator sales softened in recent months, along with investment. Decline in property sales and continued home price weakness indicate more signs of policy relaxation, economic... The Covid-19 outbreak, CS has revised down 2020 GDP forecast from 5.9 % to 5.5 % make concerned... Healthcare Sector: July utilisation data supportive ; property construction stayed weak 5G chips not. Research service model strives to deliver a holistic client and product offering efforts... Their business models uncertain times for oncology stocks self-reliance, import/supply-chain substitution and domestic demand expansion continued to the. Continue to gain Market shares in those sub-segments, while mid and large PLC markets remain by. To watch for potential catalysts the lane secular growth and reasonable valuation and suggest accumulate. A gross volume slowdown share is also playing out, as seen the! Implying a robust 2022-25E CAGR of 9.7 %: Back to the lane outbreak! Those sub-segments, while mid and large PLC markets remain under-penetrated by brands. Look for ways to unlock shareholder Value ( e.g a result, we present base!
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